Hikae
The gate. It conforms a reading into a region at a target coverage, by split-conformal calibration per task class, keeps an online monitor of the remaining risk, and applies a closed policy that returns commit, defer or abstain against the region and the budget the caller carries. It never reports how likely it is to be right.
In one picture
What is served today
The register’s served note for Hikae: the served gate itself: each reading is conformed into a coverage region then decided, replayed on the real wire, on the bring-your-own loop, and on the stable-run class by integration tests; its demonstration class runs on a committed synthetic calibration, a plumbing fixture, not a measured predictor.
The task classes the served gate knows, with the clauses it serves for each, as read from the served harness:
| task class | calibration | served clauses |
|---|---|---|
| btc-dir-15m | synthetic fixture | declared synthetic — a plumbing fixture, not a measured predictor. |
| cascade-liquidable-24h | no calibration committed | no cascade calibration is committed; the gate abstains (under_calib) on this class. |
| stable-run-velocity-24h | committed | a committed stable-run velocity calibration for the USDe synthetic-dollar-whitelisted-redeem population; over calm-window redemption flow; the calibration is measured non-stationary across half-years; no coverage is measured; for any other population, no stable-run velocity calibration is committed for this population; the gate abstains (under_calib). |
| liquidation-eligible-coverage | committed | a conformal upper bound on the liquidable amount for the calibrated class; the lower edge is 0 by construction, not a calibrated bound; abstains (under_calib) outside it; this class requires alpha = 0.01, nMin = 100; calibrated on one recorded episode; no coverage is claimed on any other event; the H-3 exchangeability check is a report, a YES licenses nothing more; the bound holds only if yhat was produced by the frozen close-factor rule on a mono-collateral WETH account at the first crossing, which the gate does not check. |
| your own class | your calibration | the gate conformalizes against THOSE caller-supplied scores (BYO). |
Contracts
The frozen contracts Hikae reads or writes, each with the keys it requires, read from the schema files. A contract with closed keys refuses an unknown key instead of ignoring it.
- Prediction
- schema_version · task_class · yhat · predictor_id · produced_at
- CoverageVerdict
- schema_version · task_class · method · alpha · n_calib · region · qhat · abstain · reason · residual · calib_digest · produced_at
- GateDecision
- schema_version · action · allow · tool · intent · verdict · remaining_budget · reason
What it does not claim
Sources
- Anastasios N. Angelopoulos and Stephen Bates (2023) Conformal Prediction: A Gentle Introduction. Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 494-591. read in part Used for the split-conformal quantile and the meaning of marginal coverage.
- Vladimir Vovk (2012) Conditional validity of inductive conformal predictors. Proceedings of the Asian Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR vol. 25, pp. 475-490. read in part Used for why coverage conditional on one input cannot be promised in general, and why a region is kept per category.
- Vladimir Vovk, David Lindsay, Ilia Nouretdinov and Alex Gammerman (2003) the title names the method with a word the site does not print; the paper is the working paper of the series below. On-line Compression Modelling Project (New Series), Working Paper 4. read in full Used for one region per category of a taxonomy fixed in advance, with validity per category and never per case.
- C. K. Chow (1970) On Optimum Recognition Error and Reject Tradeoff. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 41-46. read in part Used for abstention as a first-class answer: trading errors for rejections.
- Stephen Bates, Anastasios N. Angelopoulos, Lihua Lei, Jitendra Malik and Michael I. Jordan (2021) Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets. Journal of the ACM, vol. 68, no. 6, article 43. read in part Used for the origin of the budget vocabulary only; the served budget is not that mechanism.